Three terms sure to grab attention: Russia, nuclear, anti-satellite weapon

When you think about the prospect of Russia putting nukes in space, you can understand why some people might fill in the blanks and envision a surprise apocalyptic bombardment from orbit.

That is the nightmarish prophecy members of Congress tried to extinguish Wednesday after news leaked that US intelligence officials obtained information about Russian preparations for warfare on the high frontier.

It all began with a cryptic statement Wednesday morning from Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Turner referenced intelligence information that the committee would begin sharing with all members of Congress about a "serious national security threat."

The subject of Turner's statement is an emerging Russian anti-satellite weapon system involving nuclear technology, sources in the national security community said.

But those are about the only specifics made public Wednesday about the national security threat. Several news organizations described the Russian program as an anti-satellite nuclear weapon system. The New York Times reported that the Russian weapon system is not currently in orbit, but it's something Russia's military wants to deploy.

A significant escalation

A nuclear anti-satellite weapon in space would represent a significant escalation in tensions between Russia and the United States. If Russia used it in space, the US military would not be able to defend against it. A nuclear explosion in orbit would destroy numerous satellites in collateral damage. It would also be the most serious threat to maintaining peace in space since the dawn of the Space Age and would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which bans nuclear weapons in orbit.

Before getting carried away, it's important to note the vagueness of the statements from national security sources about the Russian anti-satellite program. It's possible some of the particularities of the Russian anti-satellite weapon were lost as the information filtered out to the public Wednesday. In his statement, Turner called on President Biden to declassify information regarding the emerging national security issue, allowing a wider swath of people, including US allies, to discuss how to respond to the threat.

There was already public evidence that Russian officials have been slowly developing a nuclear-powered spacecraft that could engage in electronic warfare to jam or disrupt communications of an adversary's satellites. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union launched more than 30 military satellites powered by nuclear reactors.

Such a program would focus on using nuclear technology to generate enough electricity to support high-power jammers that could, theoretically, engage with a range of US spacecraft, such as spy satellites, GPS satellites, or even SpaceX's commercial Starlink Internet satellites.

These are all cornerstones of the US satellite fleet, providing intelligence data to the Pentagon and the White House, supporting civilian travel and precision bombing, and connecting millions of subscribers with broadband Internet service. The Starlink network is not just useful for civilians and the US military—it has also been vital to keeping communication lines open between Ukrainian military units in their fight against Russia's invasion.

A Russian government official in 2022 said commercial satellites, like Starlink, could become "legitimate targets" if they were involved in the war in Ukraine. On the first day of Russia's Ukraine invasion in February 2022, a satellite Internet network covering the region managed by the US company Viasat went down. Western countries have pointed the finger at Russia.

The top general in the US Space Force last year said the Pentagon could be called upon to defend US-owned commercial satellites from attack.

Russian troops at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in far northern Russia prepare for the launch of a Soyuz rocket with the Kosmos 2575 satellite earlier this month. This satellite could be testing rendezvous, proximity operations, or anti-satellite technologies.

Credit: Russian Ministry of Defense

The news of Russia's interest in a nuclear anti-satellite system comes as Congress debates a funding bill to provide aid to Ukraine's defense against Russia. Turner is a proponent of Ukraine's funding.

Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, said he was already planning to brief the Gang of Eight, the congressional leaders regularly briefed on classified intelligence matters, beginning Thursday with a meeting with Turner and three other senior House members. Sullivan told reporters Wednesday he was surprised to see Turner issue a statement about the national security concern before Thursday's meeting.

Sullivan said it is "highly unusual" for him to personally brief congressional leaders, but he declined to discuss details about the national security concerns or whether he agreed with Turner's characterization of it as a serious threat.

In a letter inviting all House members to view materials relating to the matter, the House Intelligence Committee called it a "destabilizing foreign military capability that should be known by all congressional policymakers."

The Democratic ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), released a statement after Turner sounded the alarm Wednesday. Himes described the concern as “significant” but “not a cause for panic.”

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) also weighed in Wednesday afternoon. "I want to assure the American people there is no need for public alarm," Johnson said. "We are going to work together to address this matter, as we do all sensitive matters that are classified."

The two senior members of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), said in a joint statement they have been "rigorously tracking" the national security threat from the start. But they cautioned against the rapid public disclosure of the intelligence to avoid endangering the source of the information.

"We continue to take this matter seriously and are discussing an appropriate response with the administration," Warner and Rubio said. "In the meantime, we must be cautious about potentially disclosing sources and methods that may be key to preserving a range of US options."

Sustained interest

Most segments of Russia's space program have been in decline for decades, with more budget cuts on the way. On the civilian side, the shrinking budgets mean Russia's future in human spaceflight is cloudy after the retirement of the International Space Station. The number of Russian satellite launches per year has been on a downward trend the last few years, while US and Chinese rockets are flying more often.

For the last two years, Russia's military has been razor-focused on fighting a costly, bloody war in Ukraine. Not only has Russian military funding largely gone toward the Ukraine war, but Russia also lost access to Ukrainian parts for its satellites and rockets. Until the last few years, Ukraine was a key supplier to Russia's space program, an extension of their interdependence from Soviet times. Western sanctions have also cut off Russia's space program from the broader international supply chain.

But this hasn't quelled Russia's appetite for an anti-satellite, or ASAT, weapon. The Soviet Union experimented with "co-orbital" ASATs in the 1960s and 1970s. When deployed, these co-orbital ASATs would have attacked enemy satellites by approaching them and detonating explosives, or using a grappling arm to take custody and move the target out of orbit.

In 1987, the Soviet Union launched an experimental weapons platform into orbit to test laser technologies that could be used against enemy satellites.

Anti-satellite tests, particularly those using direct ascent or other kinetic weapons, have been widely condemned because they generate space debris.

Credit: NASA

Within the last 10 years, at the behest of President Vladimir Putin, Russia rebuilt its ASAT program to focus on developing a ground-launched missile. Then, in November 2021, Russia used the new missile to successfully shoot down one of its own satellites in a widely condemned "direct ascent" ASAT test. This Russian direct ascent ASAT test followed demonstrations of similar capability by China, the United States, and India.

At the same time, Russia has deployed a series of demonstration satellites over the last decade with the apparent purpose of fine-tuning rendezvous and proximity operations technology. These capabilities, known as RPO, require advanced guidance algorithms and are foundational to a co-orbital ASAT system. In 2020, a Russian satellite fired a high-speed projectile in orbit in a presumed test of an ASAT system designed to take out another spacecraft.

Most recently, Russia launched another pair of classified military satellites in December and on February 9. Notably, the launch on February 9 placed the second spacecraft in a nearly identical orbit as the first one that launched weeks earlier. This suggests a mission that could mark the next step in demonstrating Russian rendezvous and proximity operations technology, with applications as an anti-satellite weapon or in surveilling US satellites from close range.